Risk forecasting models and optimal portfolio selection

This study analyses, from an investor's perspective, the performance of several risk forecasting models in obtaining optimal portfolios. The plausibility of the homoscedastic hypothesis implied in the classical Markowitz model is dicussed and more general models which take into account assymetry and time varying risk are analysed. Specifically, it studies whether ARCH-type based models obtain portfolios whose risk-adjusted returns exceed those of the classical Markowitz model. The same analysis is performed with models based on the Lower Partial Moment (LPM) which take into account the assymetry in the distribution of returns. The results suggest that none of the models achieve a clearly superior average performance. It is also found that models based on semivariance perform as well as those based on the variance, but not better than, even if the evaluation criterion is based on the Reward-to-Semivariance ratio. When attention turns to the analysis of worst case performance, the results are clearly different. Models which employ LPM with a high degree of risk aversion (n>2) as the risk measure are consistently superior to those which employ a symmetric measure, either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic.     

A Nonparametric Test for I(0)

There is frequently interest in testing that a scalar or vector time series is I(0), possibly after first-differencing or other detrending, while the I(0) assumption is also taken for granted in autocorrelation-consistent variance estimation. We propose a test for I(0) against fractional alternatives. The test is nonparametric, and indeed makes no assumptions on spectral behaviour away from zero frequency. It seems likely to have good efficiency against fractional alternatives, relative to other nonparametric tests. The test is given large sample justification, subjected to a Monte Carlo analysis of finite sample behaviour, and applied to various empirical data series.     

Energy and machines. Energy capital ratios in Europe and Latin America. 1875–1970

The relationship between energy and capital is one of the most important aspects of modern economic growth. Machines need energy to produce all the goods we enjoy; energy would be far less useful for humankind in absence of machines. However, the great majority of the economic models do not take into account the elasticities of substitution (or complementaries) between these two main variables. Actually, energy is absent in many growth models and discussions on diverging economic development paths. We approach this relevant issue from a new perspective: energy and capital relations during 100 years. We use the latest estimations of capital stock (machinery and equipment) and energy consumption for Latin America and compare them with those of Western Europe. The energy–capital ratio (how much energy is used per unit of capital) could be a predictor of economic growth, thus providing stylised facts about the timing and causes of the different modernisation patterns of these regions and showing us some answers on the long-run relationship between energy consumption and capital accumulation.     

Influence of brand equity on the behavioral attitudes of customers: Spanish Tourist Paradores

Quality & Quantity - The objective of this research is to contrast an explanatory model of how brand equity influences the customer’s behaviour and behavioural intentions. It will take...     

On the contribution of eco-innovation features to a circular economy: A microlevel quantitative approach

The circular economy (CE) and eco-innovation (EI) are two concepts deemed instrumental in achieving a sustainable transition. They have been proposed in the academic literature and by practitioners and have acquired very high public policy relevance, being endorsed by policymakers and ultimately leading to regulations supporting them. It has been argued that both concepts are compatible and interrelated and that EI is instrumental in achieving the CE. However, little is known about how different EI features contribute to the CE at the microlevel. This article tries to cover this gap. Its aim is to assess and quantify the causal relationship between different EI features and the CE with the help of a unique dataset of small- and medium-sized firms in Spain and an econometric analysis. Our results show that only systemic EIs contribute to a global CE, whereas other EI types such as component additions or small changes in existing production processes could even be barriers to high levels of circularity. It is found out that technological novelty is not relevant for reaching the CE. The results support the understanding of how EIs enable a transition to the CE. Care should be taken not to promote incremental EIs that do not only achieve low (or no) circularity but that effectively lock-in the economic system in solutions that entail a barrier to the achievement of high-level circularity.     

Top Incomes in Chile: A Historical Perspective on Income Inequality, 1964–2017

We present a novel series of Chilean top-income shares covering half a century, mainly based on income-tax declarations and the National Accounts. Such a time frame of analysis is still rare in the literature of developing countries. We distinguish between a fiscal-income series (1964–2017) and an adjusted series (1990–2017). The former covers individual income, while the latter also includes corporate undistributed profits, which affects both levels and trends. The fiscal-income estimates start with low levels and a decreasing trend over the 1960s. They then increase rapidly during the dictatorship years (1973–89). The series ends with a high, yet slowly decreasing, concentration for most of the recent democratic period (1990–2017). By contrast, the adjusted series has followed a U-shape since the return of democracy, contradicting the established consensus on falling inequality over the period. Furthermore, Chile ranks among the most unequal countries in both the OECD and Latin American countries over the period.     

Entry‐Timing Advantages in Renewable Natural Resources Industries

In this paper, we explore the conditions of entry‐timing advantages in renewable natural resource industries. Drawing from behavioural theory of the firm, we classify firms in two groups depending on the different heuristics used to make entry decisions when facing the cyclical endogenous nature of these industries: crowd firms are procyclical, making decisions based on the current phase of the industry cycle, whereas anti‐crowd firms follow a countercyclical strategy, making uncertain, and risky decisions by estimation of the next phase of the cycle. Therefore, anti‐crowd firms anticipate the deployment of resources each cycle, potentially gaining entry‐timing advantages beyond those provided by traditional competitive isolating mechanisms. Through a mathematical simulation of a performance feedback model, we reveal that the entry‐timing advantage of the anti‐crowd group becomes possible when the rivalry in the industry and the price sensitivity of competitors are high, and when the time required to deploy the resources is short.     

How Positive and Neo‐Aristotelian Leadership Can Contribute to Ethical Leadership

Virtuous leadership is crucial for advancing leadership ethics. By comparing Positive Leadership and its notion of virtuousness with neo‐Aristotelian leadership based on virtue, this article sheds light on this research field. We expound on the differences and commonalities between the two and present possibilities of how they can enrich each other and further ethical leadership theory. Our findings concern the purported Aristotelian roots of virtuousness, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the positive and the neo‐Aristotelian approaches, and the interplay between technical skills and ethical excellence in leadership. We propose the adoption of practical managerial tools and procedures from Positive Leadership, making them dependent upon the virtues to achieve flourishing within organizations and society at large. © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE BY DESTINATION COUNTRY

The main focus of this paper is the relationship between export diversification and export performance. The key difference with respect to the previous literature is that export diversification is measured and related to export volume by destination country. The approach is empirical and an aggregate export demand setting is adopted to test the significance and influence of export diversification, measured via the Herfindahl index, on export performance by destination country. The econometric estimation is performed using export data for Spain to its partner countries for the period 1999–2011. The main finding is the positive relationship between Spanish export concentration and export performance by destination market. This finding is shown to be robust to several econometric specifications.